TUGASAN 2 P4122

Tugasan 2
P4122 - Pengurusan Pelaburan
Arahan : Sila jawab semua soalan


1. Terangkan DUA (2) andaian bagi Hipotesis Pasaran Cekap (EMH). (4 markah)

2. Bincangkan mana-mana DUA (2) bentuk kecekapan pasaran menurut Hipotesis
Pasaran Cekap (EMH). (9 markah)

3. Bincangkan DUA (2) ciri bagi industri yang berada dalam peringkat berikut:

i) Peringkat perintis (4 markah)
ii) peringkat pertumbuhan pesat; dan (4 markah)
iii) peringkat matang. (4 markah)

JUMLAH 25 MARKAH


DUE DATE 22 Mac 2010

Tugasan 1 P4122

TUGASAN 1 P4122
Modul : P4122- Pengurusan Pelaburan
Topik : Risiko dan Pulangan
Kursus : DPM 5B
Tarikh : 23 Februari 2010
Tarikh Hantar : 25 Februari 2010
Arahan : Jawab semua soalan. / Answer all the question:

GUIDELINE: Students can answer either in Bahasa Malaysia or English.
The assignment should hand - written (not computer generated)

1. Explain two (2) types of risk related to investment. (5 marks)

Jelaskan dua (2) jenis risiko berkaitan dengan pelaburan

2. You have consulted your broker on what his firm’s research department expects for the following four shares over the next year. The broker provides with the following information:
Broker anda telah menasihati anda mengenai jangkaan tentang 4 jenis saham bagi tahun hadapan. Maklumat berkaitan adalah seperti berikut :

Share Beta Expected Return (%)
A 0.25 8.0%
B 1.52 10.0%
C 0.65 12.0%
D 1.2 14.0%


In addition, you have been informed that the risk free rate is 3 percent and the return from market is 15 percent.
Anda telah diberitahu bahawa kadar bebas risiko adalah 3 % dan pulangan pasaran adalah 15 %.


You are required:
a. Which of the shares above are undervalued and which are overvalued based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)? Show your work clearly. (15 marks)
Tentukan saham yang terkurang nilai dan terlebih nilai berdasarkan kepada Model Perletakan Harga Aset Modal (CAPM). Tunjukkan jalan kerja dengan jelas.

b. Indicate what actions should you take with regards to these shares. Discuss your decisions. (2 marks)
Jelaskan keputusan anda

3. Based on one of the reputable research house, the risk free rate of return is 3% and the expected market return is 12%. If the beta of this share is 1.5, calculate required rate of return of the share. (3 marks)

Berdasarkan kepada sebuah penyelidikan diberi kadar bebas risiko 3% dan jangkaan pulangan dari pasaran adalah 12%. Jika nilai beta adalah 1.5 kirakan kadar pulangan yang diperlukan.

SELAMAT MENJAWAB..

p/s : bagi soalan (2)diatas dalam table share ada 4 iaitu A,B ,C dan D
nilai Beta A = 0.25 , Beta B = 1.52, Beta C = 0.65 dan Beta D = 1.2
Expected Return dalam % bagi A = 8%, B = 10%, C = 12% dan D = 14%

UNIT TRUST

Investing in Mutual Funds

What is a Mutual Fund?

A mutual fund pools your money with other investors' and the capital is used to invest in a diversified portfolio of securities. Mutual funds are professionally managed to pursue each fund’s specific goal.

As an investor in a mutual fund, you become a shareholder in a large portfolio of stocks, bonds and/or money market securities (or some combination of them). As a shareholder, you are entitled to a share of the capital appreciation, interest and dividends (or losses, as the case may be).

One of the benefits of a mutual fund is the opportunity to obtain greater diversification at a relatively inexpensive cost because generally, your share of the portfolio will cost less than what it would cost to purchase all of the individual securities held separately.

Load vs. No-load Mutual Funds
Those funds that include a sales charge paid by the investor -- usually at purchase, and occasionally when the fund shares are sold -- are called "load" funds. "No-load" funds do not charge this fee.

Typically, a sales charge is present when the mutual fund is purchased through a financial advisor or registered representative. The "load" pays for the financial advice the client receives for selecting his or her investment. "No load" mutual funds are typically used by investors who prefer to make investment decisions without an advisor.

The Mutual Fund Marketplace

Mutual funds have become a popular investment vehicle over the last 20 years. More than 40 million people in the U.S. invest in them. That's one of every three households in America.

The diversification feature of mutual funds tends to reduce the danger of company-specific declines to which investors in individual stocks may be subject. As an individual investor, it can be expensive to try to invest in a broad range of securities. Instead, individual investors tend to buy stock in a smaller number of companies. This exposes them to risk if the price of one of their chosen equities drops sharply.

But the investor in a diversified mutual fund buys a small piece of the entire fund, reducing the exposure to declining individual stocks and benefiting from owning dozens (perhaps hundreds) of different securities.
Although equity mutual funds typically carry more risk than fixed-income securities, they generally offer more capital growth potential. And with thousands of funds available in the marketplace, it is relatively easy to find a fund to meet almost any investment need.

Sales Charge Discount for Load Funds

Mutual fund companies typically offer sales charge discounts to investors who purchase a certain dollar amount of shares in either a specific mutual fund or multiple funds offered by the same mutual fund company.
Each investment purchase level at which the fund company offers a lower sales charge is known as a "breakpoint." An investor may also be entitled to a breakpoint through the following:
 "Rights of Accumulation" (ROA) permit a fund shareholder to obtain a sales charge discount on a current purchase if that purchase, added to the shareholder's existing fund holdings, reaches or exceeds a breakpoint level.
 A "Combined Purchase Privilege" (CPP) allows a purchaser to reach a breakpoint through ROA by combining his or her fund purchases with the purchases made by his or her family members in the same fund company.
 A "Letter of Intent" (LOI) allows a purchaser to receive a sales discount through his or her written promise to purchase sufficient number of fund shares to reach a breakpoint dollar amount within a certain amount of time.
Information on specific breakpoint levels can be found in the prospectus that accompanies each mutual fund. The eligibility for breakpoints, ROA, CPP and LOI vary by fund and are determined by the specific investment company as stated in the prospectus. Before you invest, obtain more complete information about mutual fund charges and expenses, by obtaining and reading the applicable prospectus.

Types of Funds

Before you invest in any fund, it's important to understand its objectives and strategies, which can be found in the prospectus. You want to be sure that the fund is appropriate for your goals and risk tolerance level.
 Aggressive Growth Funds seek to provide maximum growth of capital with secondary emphasis on income, and often invest in emerging growth companies that pay small dividends, if any, but with a potential for rapid growth. They are designed for investors who can afford to assume the risk of potential loss while seeking substantial gains.
For instance, small-cap funds, which target smaller companies with greater growth potential and risk, would be classified as aggressive. Such funds are subject to wide variations in value. Another example, sector funds, invest in securities of a specific industry or section of the economy (such as pharmaceuticals, health care, or chemicals); they offer a good opportunity for capital appreciation in a growing industry but also involve the risk of potential loss if an economic downturn hits that particular industry. Sector funds offer less diversification benefits than a broad industry fund.
 Growth Funds seek long-term capital growth first and current income second, and tend to favor established companies. Large-cap funds, which tend to specialize in established, dividend-paying companies are often classified as growth funds.
Index funds give the investor a broadly diversified portfolio by buying shares in all of the companies in a broad index, such as the S&P 500 Stock Index or some other benchmark. These funds are generally appropriate for someone who will not need to withdraw funds in the near future.

 Growth and Income Funds seek both long-term capital growth and current income, usually by investing in a portfolio of growth and income stocks, or in a combination of growth stocks, income stocks, preferred stocks, convertible securities or fixed-income securities. They are more suitable for investors who want moderate potential for growth and current income along with moderate stability of principal.Balanced funds invest in bonds as well as stocks (Bonds are typically more stable than stocks but bond prices do fluctuate with changes in interest rates. There is still a degree of risk involved if interest rates change.).Asset allocation funds are designed to provide diversification: they combine stocks, bonds and money markets, dividing their assets at the fund manager's discretion to take advantage of the most attractive markets at the appropriate time.
 Income Funds have a primary goal of providing current income with capital growth generally of secondary importance, and are more suitable for investors who are able to assume a degree of capital risk. Equity income funds invest primarily in high-dividend-paying blue chip stocks. There are a variety of bond funds, as well. Municipal bond funds provide shareholders with tax-advantaged income. Others specialize in U.S. government bonds.

 Money Market Income Funds are designed to provide the investor with income as well as with high stability of principal (though generally no capital appreciation) by investing exclusively in short-term debt securities issued by banks, corporations, and the U.S. Treasury (and U.S. government-sponsored enterprises such as Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac).Some funds, even more conservative, invest strictly in securities whose timely payment of interest and principal is guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Municipal bond money market funds specialize in investing in short-term, high-rated municipal debt securities in order to provide their shareholders with tax advantages.
 International and Global Funds involve an added element of risk since they invest all over the world. Such funds involve added risks associated with currency fluctuations and economic and political instability. International funds generally seek growth through investments in companies outside the United States. Global funds seek growth by investing in securities around the world, including in the United States.International mutual funds are an excellent way to invest abroad because an individual American investor may be unfamiliar with foreign investment practices and currencies and may not have a clear understanding of economic or political events that can affect foreign securities. Some of these funds concentrate on a particular country, while others on a specific region of the world. Funds in these two categories are generally growth or aggressive growth funds.

Unit Investment Trust

What is a Unit Investment Trust?

A Unit Investment Trust (UIT) holds a fixed portfolio of securities, most often comprised of tax-exempt municipal bonds but also commonly consisting of government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities or common stocks. Unlike mutual funds, where securities are bought and sold as the portfolio manager deems appropriate considering the current market environment, the securities in a UIT are not actively managed. A UIT is sponsored by a securities firm or group of firms. The sponsor assembles a portfolio of stocks or bonds that remains unchanged for the life of the trust, which may run from 6 months to 30 years. Investors purchase trust units which represent ownership in the trust portfolio and an opportunity to share in the UIT's income and capital gains and appreciation, if any.
 Interest payments from bonds in a bond trust are distributed on a regular basis to investors in the trust, and each time a bond in the trust matures, the repaid principal is distributed to trust investors. When the last bond matures, the trust is liquidated.
 Similarly, dividend payments from stocks in a stock trust are distributed to investors on a regular basis. At the end of a specified period (set when the trust was created), the stocks are sold at that day's market price, the proceeds from the sale are distributed to investors, and the trust is liquidated.

RISK

Measuring Risk


Investment risk can never be entirely eliminated, but many of the risks associated with stock investments may be reduced with proper industry diversification.

Diversification can mitigate the effect that a particular stock's decline in value will have on your overall portfolio. While diversification, through mutual funds for example, can protect against risks from a single investment or a single type of investment, it will not protect you against market and inflation risks.

Any investor seeking higher returns must be willing to assume additional risk. As a general rule, the higher the potential gain, the greater the risk.

To get a clearer picture of the degree of risk involved, carefully analyze the historical volatility of each stock you're considering.

A traditional way to measure risk when considering volatility is by comparing "betas." A beta represents the volatility of a given stock vs. the market as a whole. In general, stocks with high betas are deemed to be aggressive, while those with lower betas are usually considered defensive. For example:
 A stock with a beta of one would be expected to move in tandem with the market averages.
 A stock with a beta of 1.3 would be 30 percent more volatile than the market as a whole.
 A stock with a beta of 0.5 would be expected to have half of the market's volatility (i.e., advancing 5 percent if the market advanced 10 percent or declining 5 percent if the market declined 10 percent).
Unsystematic Risk vs. Systematic Risk

Unsystematic risks are associated with a given company or industry. Examples include product delays, competitive issues, margin deterioration or weakening financial conditions within either a single company or an industry.

Systematic risks are associated with the stock market in general. While proper diversification can help eliminate much of the unsystematic risk from your portfolio, diversification with other stocks will not eliminate systematic risks. But diversification among different asset categories -- cash, bonds, real estate, etc. -- can reduce a portfolio's systematic risk below that found in stocks alone.

STOCKS

-Stocks

When used as part of a well-diversified portfolio, common stocks can play an integral role in your quest to achieve your financial goals. Historically, stocks outperform most other investments in achieving long-term capital growth, and may help minimize the negative, long-term effects of inflation. But the market risk with common stocks can be substantial. While an interest-bearing account might earn two percent over a year's time, the price of a stock can rise or fall by that amount or more in just minutes. And while there may be a certain appeal to making decisions on the fly (or trying to time the market as though you were a "trader"), there is no substitute for a long-term, well-thought-out financial strategy.

Your stock choices should be the result of extensive research. Take the time to sift through the securities available to find those that match your risk/return parameters, rather than chasing after short-term trades. This "investor" approach will help you avoid the volatility associated with day trading. Use H&R Block Financial Advisors' Research Center for timely information online.

Look for investments that have fundamental strengths. Stocks in companies with capable management, growing markets, and strong financial positions make sense for many investors. Once identified, examine the individual stocks for a closer analysis.

In addition to their risk, stocks may be volatile. A variety of factors contribute, including company performance; economic factors, such as changes in interest rates or in the rate of unemployment; political news; and events of national or international importance.

Diversification

It's also important to learn about the different types of stocks. Each stock possesses its own unique risk/return characteristics. Generally, the greater the desired return, the greater the risk of loss. Some stocks offer greater stability, while others that are more volatile offer more opportunity for a greater return.

As you consider your investment in stocks, remember the importance of diversification-- not only among different stocks but also among industries.
 Cyclical stocks. These are stocks in industries that go up and down with the economy. Cyclical stocks belong to companies that may report strong earnings in one cycle, yet in a downturn, turn around and post losses in the next. Cyclical industries include automotive, paper, chemical, steel and housing.
 Defensive stocks. These stocks are typically less volatile than average and thus provide a more conservative return on an investor's money than do the cyclicals. Defensive stocks can be found in sectors whose goods are in demand regardless of the economic environment, including the beverage, pharmaceutical, food and tobacco sectors.
 Interest-rate-sensitive stocks. These stocks, which include banks and utilities, fluctuate in value with interest rates since such companies tend to borrow large amounts of money. They typically perform well during times of declining interest rates but poorly during times of rising interest rates. Companies that typically perform better when interest rates are rising, such as those engaged in oil production or the mining of precious metals, are often sought as a hedge against inflation.
 Growth stocks. These stocks are in companies that have exhibited faster-than-average gains in revenue over the last few years and are expected to continue to show high levels of profit growth. They may offer investors opportunities for capital appreciation. Many of these stocks are found in the software, telecommunications, semiconductors or biotechnology industries. However, growth stocks tend to have greater volatility because the stock may often be selling at a higher price in the market in comparison to the stock's intrinsic value.
 Value stocks. Value stocks typically sell with relatively low valuation as determined by price/book, price/sales, and price/cash flow ratios, implying that their market value may be closer to their book value.

CHAPTER 7 : REGULATORY BODIES

Tajuk 7 – Badan-Badan Pengawalseliaan

7.1 Pengenalan
Industri sekuriti di Malaysia ditadbir oleh akta parlimen berikut:-

i. Akta Perindustrian Sekuriti (Securities Industry Act) 1983
ii. Akta Pendepositan Pusat (Securities Industry (Central Depositories Act) 1991)
iii. Akta Suruhanjaya Sekuriti (Securities Comission Act ) 1993
iv. Akta Syarikat (Companies Act) 1965
v. Akta Industri ‘Futures’ 1993 (Futures Industry Act 1993)
vi. Akta Industri Pesisiran Labuan 1995 (Labuan Offshore Securities Industry Act 1995)

Badan pengawalseliaan berikut adalah bertanggungjawab dalam menyelia dan mengurus industri sekuriti di Malaysia.

i. Suruhanjaya sekuriti (Securities Cimission/SC)

Ia ditubuhkan di bawah Akta Suruhanjaya Sekuriti 1993 bertujuan untuk membekalkan peraturan dan menasihati menteri Kewangan mengenai semua perkara-perkara berkait dengan kontrak-kontrak industri sekuriti dan futures.Antara fungsi-fungsinya adalah seperti berikut:-

• Menyelia pasaran, rumah penjelasan dan pendepositan pusat.
• Pendaftaran prospectus syarikat-syarikat .
• Meluluskan penerbitan bon korporat.
• Meguruskan semua perkara-perkara berkaitan dengan kontrak hadapan dan sekuriti.
• Menguruskan pengambil alihan dan penggabungan syarikat-syarikat.
• Menguruskan semua perkara-perkara berkaitan dengan skim unit amanah.
• Menguruskan pelesenan dan menyelia lesen orang-orang yang mempunyai lesen.

• Menggalakkan ‘self-regulation’
• Mempastikan pengendalian yang betul ke atas institusi pasaran dan orang-orang yang mempunyai lesen.

SECURITIES COMMISSION•

The Securities Commission or better known as SC, was set up in 1993 under the Securities
• Commission Act 1993. This statutory body is self-funded and it is entrusted with investigative as well as enforcement powers.
• The objective of this commission is to regulate and systematically develop the capital market in Malaysia. Besides this, the SC is also entrusted with the responsibility of protection of investors. The Securities Commission comes under the jurisdiction of the Minister of Finance.
• The functions of the Securities Commission are as follows:
1. Registration of prospectuses of firms engaging in initial public offerings or IPOs.
2. Supervision of the following institutions:
(a) Stock exchange
(b) Clearing houses
(c) Central depositories.
3. Approval of private debt securities (PDS) issues.
4. Regulation of all matters relating to:
(a) Securities and futures contracts and options
(b) Mergers and acquisitions
(c) Units trusts.
5. Licensing, supervision and ensuring the proper conduct of all licensed persons relate to the capital market such as brokers and remisiers.
6. Ensure the proper conduct of institutions in the securities market, unit trusts markets etc.

ii. Pendaftar Syarikat (Registrar of Companies/ROC)

Ia bertanggungjawab dalam mentadbir pelaksanaan Akta Syarikat 1965.

iii. Jawatankuasa pelaburan asing (Foreign Investment Committee/FIC)

Ia berfungsi dalam melaksanakan garispanduan kerajaan ke atas perturan-peraturan dalam perolehan asset atau kepentingan, penggabungan atau ambilalih syarikat dan perniagaan serta bertanggungjawab ke atas isu-isu penting dalam pelaburan asing.

iv. Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur (Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange/KLSE)

Ia merupakan organisasi yang mempunyai peraturannya sendiri serta mempunyai memorandum and articles of association’ yang tersendiri. Ia mentadbir pengendalian urusniaga sekuriti oleh ahli-ahlinya. Ia juga bertanggungjawab dari segi pengawasan pasaran dan penguatkuasaan keperluan penyenaraian

Bursa Malaysia Berhad
Corporate Historical Highlights
1870 - Initial trading of shares
1960 - Malayan Stock Exchange
1965 - Stock Exchange of Malaysia and Singapore (SEMS)
1973 - SEMS – The KLSE and The SES
1989 - SCORE Trading System
1998 - Acquisition of KLOFFE
2000 - Offshore exchange launched (LFX)
2001 - Consolidation of derivatives exchanges completed (KLOFFE + COMMEX = MDEX)
2002 - Consolidation of stock exchanges completed (MESDAQ merged with KLSE)
2004 - KLSE become a public company limited by shares – Bursa Malaysia
2005 - Listing of Bursa Malaysia – 18 March 2005 and is now listed on its own exchange.


7.2 Bahagian IX Akta Perindustrian Sekuriti 1983
(Urusniaga Yang Dilarang)

i. Transaksi Perdagangan Palsu Dan Penipuan Dalam Pasaran.
Seseorang telah mewujudkan suatu rupa yang palsu atau mengelirukan sebagai memperdagangkan sekuriti dalam pasaran jika:-
- telah melaksanakan transaksi yang tidak melibatkan apa-apa pertukaran dalam keupyaan atau kemilikansekuriti.
- Membuat suatu tawaran untuk menjual apa-apa sekuriti dengan harga tertentu.

ii. Manipulasi Pasaran Saham
Seseorang tidak boleh melaksanakan atau mengambil bahagian samada secara langsung atau tidak dalam apa-apa transaksi yang mungkin mempunyai kesan ke atas :-

- Kenaikan
- menurunkan atau
- mengekalkan harga sekuriti berkenaan.

iii. Pernyataan dan lain-lain yang palsu atau mengelirukan
Seseorang tidak boleh membuat suatu perbyataan atau menyebarkan maklumat yang palsu atau mengelirukan dalam satu butir yang material yang boleh mendorong orang lain untuk berurusan atau boleh memberi kesan ke atas kenaikan, penurunan atau pengekalan harga pasaran sekuriti.

iv. Mendorong orang-orang berniaga sekuriti secara fraud (menipu)
Seseorang tidak boleh ;
- membuat atau menerbitkan apa-apa pernyataan, janji atau telahan yang mengelirukan , palsu atau memperdaa.
- menyembunyikan fakta material secara curang (tidak jujur).

v. Penggunaan peranti manipulasi dan memperdaya

Adalah menyalahi undang-undang bagi mana-mana orang yang ada kaitan secara langsung atau tidak dengan transaksi mana-mana sekuriti dengan tujuan :-
- untuk menggunakan apa-apa peranti, muslihat atau tipu daya untuk menipu.
- untuk melibatkan diri dalam perbuatan, amalan atau perjalanan operasi sebagai penipuan atau memperdaya orang lain.
- untuk membuat kenyataan tak benar atas fakta material atau menyembunyikan fakta material.

vi. Penyebaran maklumat berkenaan degan transaksi haram
Seseorang tidak boleh mengedarkan atau menyebarkan apa-apa pernyataan atau maklumat yang bermaksud menaikkan, menurunkan atau pengekalan harga sekuriti.

vii. Liabiliti sivil bagi perlanggaran kesalahan di atas
Seseorang yang telah melakukan kesalahan di tas dan telah menyebabkan orang lain mengalami kerugian adalah bertanggungan ke atas kerugian tersebut.

7.3 Peranan Bursa saham kuala Lumpur (Bursa Malaysia)

i. Membekalkan kemudahan urusniaga pasaran saham, menyelia dan mengawal kemudahan.
ii. Mempromosi dan melindungi kepentingan serta kebajikan ahli-ahli Bursa Saham.
iii. Mempunyai kuasa untuk pelaksanaan undang-undang yang melibatkan ahli-ahli syarikat di bursa saham dan bertindak sebagai penyelesai masalah di kalangan ahli-ahli (oleh jawatankuasa pasaran)
iv. Membentuk prinsip-prinsip keadilan dalam pasaran sekuriti.
v. Menggubal dan meminda ke atas peraturan-peraturan yang melibatkan ahli syarikat dan urusniaga yang dilakukan nya dari semasa ke semasa.
vi. Menyediakan perkhidmatan kepada pelabur-pelabur dan mempromosikan minat mereka dalam pasaran sekuriti.
vii. Mempromosi industri sekuriti dan perdagangan Malaysia serta menambahkan kemudahan-kemudahan yang berkaitan.
viii. Menyediakan dan bertindak ke atas keperluan-keperluan penyenaraian dan menjaga kebajikan syarikat-syarikat tersenarai .
ix. Membentuk satu polisi pengawal-seliaan pasaran dan pendedahan korporat.


7.4 Peraturan Urusniaga di Bursa Saham Kuala Lumpur (Bursa Malaysia)

i. Penyelesaian dan penjelasan antara ahli-ahli mesti melalui rumah penjelasan iaitu institusi yang dilantik oleh Bursa saham.
ii. Urusniaga boleh dibuat ke atas sekuriti berikut :-

a) Sekuriti yang disebutharga dalam senarai rasmi BSKL.
b) Bil perbendaharaan, pinjaman, sekuriti jangka pendek dan lain-lain sekuriti yang diterbitkan oleh kerajaan Malaysia dan lain-lain Negara.
c) Saham amanah yang dikendalikan di Malaysia.
d) Lain-lain sekuriti tidak dibenarkan diurusniaga sehingga telah mendapat persetujuan dari BSKL secara rasmi.

iii. Senarai rasmi BSKL hendaklah terdiri dari semua sekuriti yang telah memenuhi keperluan penyenaraian.
iv. Jawatankuasa BSKL boleh mengumumkan mana-mana sekuriti tersenarai sebagai ‘designated securities’ dimana telah berlaku manipulasi atau spekulasi yang berlebihan. Jawatankuasa boleh meminta semua ahli syarikat untuk membekalkan semua butiran/maklumat ke atas semua kontrak-kontrak ‘outstanding’, urusniaga dan transaksi berkaitan dalam tempoh 24 jam.
v. Dalam kes terdapat hanya ada satu kumpulan yang mengawal /membeli mana-mana sekuriti yang menyebabkan kontrak-kontrak yang ada tidak boleh diselesaikan kecuali pada harga dan syarat yang diminta oleh kumpulan ini; jawatankuasa mempunyai kuasa untuk :-

a) Menunda masa penghantaran pada satu masa yang ditentukan oleh jawatankuasa.
b) menunda penghantaran sehingga tindakan selanjutnya diambil oleh jawatankuasa.
c) mengumumkan kontrak diselesaikan dengan pembayaran dan bukan penghantaran.

7.5 Ahli-ahli BSKL

Di Malaysia urusniaga dalam sekuriti hanya dilakukan oleh ahli-ahli syarikat atau syarikat broker saham.
Syarikat Broker saham terdiri dari :-

i. Syarikat Persendirian (private) dan
ii. Syarikat awam
iii. Keahlian BSKL terdiri dari :-

a. ‘Voting Members’ iaitu ahli syarikat BSKL.
b. ‘Non-voting members’ iaitu pemegang saham dan pengarah syarikat ahli.

Non-voting members terdiri dari :-

i. ‘Dealing members’ iaitu seorang pengarh eksekutif syarikat ahli yang memegang lessen wakil jualan.
ii. ‘Non-dealing members’ iaitu samada seorang pemegang saham syarikat korporat atau individu atau seorang pengarah bukan eksekutif sebuah syarikat ahli yang telah memenuhi syarat-syarat yang dinyatakan oleh BSKL.

7.6 Sistem Pendepositan Pusat (CDS)

CDS merupakan system penjelasan dan penyelesaian sekuriti secara berkomputer. Semua skrip saham fizikal disimpan dalam bentuk ‘jumbo certificates’ yang diuruskan oleh Malaysian Central Depository Sdn. Bhd. (MCD)

Objektif utama CDS ialah :-

i. Menubuhkan dan mengendalikan satu system pemusatan pengurusan sekuriti.
ii. Menambah kapasiti penjelasan dan penyelesaian sekuriti.
iii. Mengurangkan kos dan risiko penyelesaian sekuriti.
iv. Meningkatkan kecairan dan kecekapan pasaran modal Malaysia.
v. Mempromosikan kemampuan pasaran saham Malaysia dengan mematuhi piawaian antarabangsa terkini untuk penjelasan dan penyelesaian sekuriti.

Kebaikan CDS:-

a) Kepada pelabur

i. Tiada risiko kehilangan, tersalah letak atau pemalsuan skrip.
ii. Tiada masalah penghantaran dan pengambilan skrip dari atau kepada broker.
iii. Tidak perlu menghantar sijil-sijil untuk pendaftaran (berlaku secara automatic).
iv. Menjinatkan masa, yuran pendaftaran dan duti stem.

b) Kepada syarikat broker saham

i. Menghapuskan kesilapan manusia dalam menguruskan volum skrip yang besar secara fizikal.
ii. Menjimatkan ruang pejabat dan tenaga kerja yang akhirnya mengurangkan kos operasi.
iii. Kecekapan yang lebih baik dalam menyelesaikan masalah risiko.
iv. Pengurangan dalam menyelesaikan masalah risiko.
v. Pengurusan volum perniagaan yang lebih besar.

c) Kepada Syarikat-Syarikat Tersenarai dan Pendaftar Syarikat

i. Penjimatan kos pendaftaran.
ii. Kecekapan dari segi mengemaskini pengetahuan/maklumat.
iii. Sistem pendaftaran secara automatic.

d) Kepada bank-bank

i. Menjimatkan tenaga kerja dan ruang untuk tujuan pemprosesan dan penyimpanan skrip.
ii. Menawarkan perkhidmatan yang lebih baik dan kemudahan cagaran kepada pelanggan melalui CDS.

7.7 Kuala Lumpur Options And Financial Futures Exchange (KLOFFE)

KLOFFE ialah bursa elektronik sepenuhnya yang beroperasi secara besepadu antara urusniaga dan system penjelasan. Sistem ini dikenali sebagai KLOFFE automated Trading System. Ia ditubuhkan untuk membekalkan produk berbentuk derivative seperti futures dan opsyen. Tujuannya ialah untuk membukan peluang-peluang baru yang lebih canggih bagi menghasilkan pengurusan portfolio yang lebih berkesan.

Badan-badan yang mengawalselia industri ini ialah :-

i. Kemeterian Kewangan
ii. Suruhanjaya Sekuriti (Securities Comission).

KLOFFE terikat dengan ‘Futures Industry act 1993’ atau ‘Futures Industry (Amendment) Act 1995’ yang ditadbir oleh Suruhanjaya Sekuriti. Suruhanjaya Sekuriti ditubuhkan di bawah ‘securities Comission Act 1993’ yang bertujuan untuk mengendalikan dan memantau industri futures dan sekuriti.

Suruhanjaya Sekuriti juga bertanggung jawab dalam mengeluarkan lesen kepada :-

i. Broker futures dan wakilnya.
ii. Penasihat urusniaga futures dan wakilnya.
iii. Pengurus dana futures dan wakilnya.

KLOFFE mempunyai peraturan dan undang-undangnya sendiri dari aspek :-

i. Keahlian kepada KLOFFE.
ii. Pentadbiran KLOFFE.
iii. Perhubungan antara ahli-pelanggan.
iv. Amalan-amalan urusniaga.
v. Definisi produk yang diurusniaga dan spesifikasi produk ini.

TOPIC 6- OTHER TYPES OF INVESTMENTS

6.1 Warrants

A warrant is an option to purchase within a specified time period , a stated number of shares at a specified price.

The important differences between options (calls) and warrants.

i. Warrants are issued by corporations whereas puts and calls are created by investors.
ii. Warrants typically have maturities of at least several years whereas calls expire within 9 months.
iii. Warrant terms are not standardized. Each warrant is unique.

The characteristics of warrants:-

• Provides the owner with an exercisable option on the underlying common shares.
• The warrant holder receives no dividends and has no voting rights.
• All conditions of a warrant are specified at issuance.
• Warrants often provide a one-to-one ratio in conversion.
• Exercise price as per share amount to be paid by the warrant holder on exercise which is specified at issuance.
• The exercise price always exceeds the market price of the stock at te time the warrant is issued.

The determinants of the premium of a warrant

i. The larger the remaining life of a warrant, the more valuable it is. Most Investors are well advised not to purchase a warrant with less than 3 years remaining to maturity.
ii. Price volatility of the common share. The more volatile the price of the underlying share, the more likely the warrant is to appreciate during a given time period.
iii. The dividend on the underlying common share. Inverse relationship exist between the warrant premium and the expected dividend on the share.
iv. The potential leverage of the warrant. Warrant prices rise/decline faster in percentage term than the price of the share.



6.2 Preference Shares

Preference share is an equity security with an intermediate claim on a firm’s assets and earnings. It is a hybrid security because it resembles both fixed-income and equity instruments. It is more income oriented than capital gains-oriented.


Different types of preference shares :-

i. Cumulative preference shares.
Unpaid dividends may accumulate as dividends in arrears before any dividends can be paid to the ordinary share holders.

ii. Redeemable or callable preference shares.
It can be redeemed or recalled by the company. The investors will receive a pre-determined sum of money, usually includes any unpaid dividends.

iii. Convertible preference shares.
It gives the holder the privilege to convert it into ordinary shares at specified prices. It gives advantage to the share holder when the market price of ordinary shares increases.

iv. Participating preference shares.
It gives its owner the right to share both the fixed dividend and earnings of the company after all senior securities have been paid.


The main characteristics:-

i. Limited ownership rights.
i.e no voting rights.

ii. Fixed dividend
Annual dividend payments are fixed at a certain percentage of the par value of the shares.

iii. Dividend priority over ordinary shares.
Fixed dividends are paid before dividends are paid to ordinary shareholders.

iv. Priority in asset claims.
Referred as senior securities. In the case of the liquidation of the company preference shareholders have a prior claim on the company’s assets over the ordinary shareholders.



6.3 Futures Markets

Futures markets are organized and standardized forward market. It serves a valuable economic purpose by allowing hedgers to shift price risks to speculators.

Futures Contracts:-

Futures Contracts are standardized, transferable agreements providing for the deferred delivery of either a specified grade and quantity of a designated commodity within a specified geographical area or of a financial instrument (or its cash value).

It is a commitment to buy or sell at a specified future settlement date a designated amount of a commodity or asset.

The futures price at which this exchange will occur at contract maturity is determined today. Futures contract are not securities. The commitments that have been made by the buyers and sellers are binding. Futures contract are legal contracts. The buyer and seller can avoid them by taking an opposite position in the same commodity or financial instrument for the same futures month.

Short Position (seller)

An agreement to sell an asset at a specified future date at a specified price. It commits a trader to deliver an item at contract maturity.

Long Position (buyer)

An agreement to purchase an asset at a specified future date at a specified price. It commits a trader to purchase an item at contract maturity.

Futures contract can be settled by delivery or offset. Delivery or settlement of the contract occurs in months that are designated by the various exchanges for each of the item traded. It occurs in less than 2% of all transactions.

Offset is a typical method of settling contract. It is a liquidation of a futures position by an off setting transaction. It means buyer sell their positions and sellers buy their positions. The investor does the reverse of what was done originally to eliminate a futures market position.

If a futures contract is not offset, it must be closed out by delivery.


The users of futures contract :-

a) Hedgers
Buy or sell futures contracts in order to offset the risk in a cash position.

How to hedge :_

i. The short (sell) hedge

A cash market inventory holder must sell (short) the futures to protect the value of their assets. Investors are holding the securities, they are long in cash position and need to protect themselves against a decline in prices.

ii. The long (buy) hedge

An investor who currently holds no cash inventory (holds no commodities or financial instruments) is short in the cash market. Therefore to hedge requires a long futures position. By establishing a long position today, the investor makes a commitment to buy in the futures at a price determined today.

b) Speculators

Speculators buy or sell futures contracts in an attempt to earn a return. They are willing to assume the risk of price fluctuations, hoping to profit from them. They contribute to the liquidity of the market and reduce the variability in prices over time.

Cash market

It is a typical trading for physical commodities and financial instruments. A cash contract means calls for immediate delivery and is used by those who need a commodity now. A cash contract cannot be canceled unless both parties agree.

Spot market is a market where current market price of an item available for immediate delivery.

Forward market is a market for deferred delivery.

Forward price is the price of an item for deferred delivery.


6.4 Options

Options represent claims on an underlying common shares, created by investors and sold to other investors. It gives the right to the holder to buy or sell shares within a specified period at a specified price.

The corporation involves in the underlying shares has no direct interest in the transaction and also has no responsible for the creation , termination or execution of the contracts.

Types of option :-

i. Call option
An option to buy a specified number of shares at a stated price within a specified period of months.

ii. Put option
An option to sell a specified number of shares at a stated price within a specified period of months.

Investors purchase calls if they expect the share price to rise. Therefore calls permit investors to speculate on a rise in the price of the underlying share without buying the share itself.

Investors purchase puts if they expect the share price to fall. Therefore puts allow investors to speculate on a decline in the share price without selling the share short.

Why do investors buy options:-

i. In the case of calls, an investor can control (for a short period) a claim on the underlying common share for a much smaller investment than required to buy the share itself.
In the case of puts, an investor can duplicate a short sale without a margin account.
ii. The buyer’s maximum loss is known in advance.
iii. Options provide leverage. i.e magnified gains in relation to buying the share.
iv. Options can reduce total portfolio transaction costs.

Terminology:-

1. Exercise (strike ) Price
The per share price at which the common share may be purchased from or sold to a writer.

2. Expiration Date
The last date at which an option can be exercised.
3. Option Premium
The price paid by the option buyer to the seller of the option.

How options work

The buyer and the seller have opposite expectations about the likely performance of the underlying share and therefore the option itself.

The call writer expects the price of the share to move down. The call buyer expects the price of the share to move up.

The put writer expects the price to move up. The put buyer expects the price to move down.

The styles of the options

i. American Style
The option can be exercised any time before the expiration date.

ii. European Style
The option can only be exercised on the expiration date.


Relationship between the exercise price of the option and the current stock price

Exercise price – E
Current stock price – S

For a call option ; If :-

S > E – The option is in the money.
S < E – The option is out of the money

E slightly greater than S – the option is near the money.

S= E the option is at the money.

For a put option; If :-

S < E – The option is in the money.
S > E – The option is out of the money

S slightly greater than E – the option is near the money.

S= E the option is at the money

6.5 Black-Scholes Model

It was developed by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes for valuation of call options.It is widely accepted and used in the investment community.

It uses 5 variables to value the call option of a nondividend-paying stock:-

i. The price of the underlying stock.
ii. The exercise price of the option .
iii. The time remaining to the expiration of the stock.
iv. The interest rate.
v. The variability of the underlying stock price.

Definisi (DBP):-

Model Opsyen Black-Scholes – Model untuk menentukan harga opsyen yang memberikan kadar pulangan tanpa risiko kepada pelabur yang menggunakan opsyen untuk mewujudkan kedudukan terlindung nilai bebas risiko.

Model Harga Opsyen Binomial – Model penilaian harga opsyen ala Amerika atau ala Eropah yang mendapati bahawa nilai opsyen yang diperlukan untuk mendapatkan pulangan tanpa risiko kepada kedudukan perlindungan ialah dengan mengandaikan bahawa terdapat dua pulangan yang mungkin bagi setiap tempoh.

CHAPTER 5 : VALUATION OF BONDS

TOPIC 5 – VALUATION OF BONDS

5.1 PRESENT VALUE METHOD

Definition – Long term debt instrument representing the issuer’s obligation to pay interest and repay principal.
Bonds are fixed income securities i.e securities with specified payment dates and amounts.
The par value of most bonds is RM 1000 i.e the value assigned to a security when it is issued. Coupon bonds . Most of the bonds are coupon bonds. Coupon is the periodic interest that the issuer pays to the holder of the bonds.
Intrinsic value of a security (estimated value) is the present value of the expected cash flows from the asset.
The future cash flows must be discounted at an appropriate rate to determine the present value.
n
Vo = ∑ cash flows /(1 + k )t
t=1
Where
Vo = the value of the asset now.
Cash flows = the future cash flows resulting from ownership of the asset.
k = the appropriate discount rate or required rate of return.
n= number of periods over which the cash flows are expected.

The investor has to determine :-
1. The expected cash flows.
2. The timing of the expected cash flows.
3. The discount rate demanded by the investor.


Formula :-

2n
V =∑ Ct/2 /(1 + r/2)t + MV / (1 + r/2)2n
t=1

Where

V = the present value of the bond today.
C = the annual coupons or interest payments
MV = the maturity value (or par value) of the bond.
n = the number of years to maturity of the bond.
r = the appropriate discount rate for the bond.

Ct/2 refers to the semiannual payment of interest/coupon.
This calculation can be solved easily by using the present value tables.

V = C/2 (PVIFA r/2% , 2n ) + MV(PVIF r/2% , 2n)

Example 1
Consider newly issued bond A with a three year ,maturity, sold at par with a 10% coupon rate. Assumed interest is paid semiannually and discount rate is 10%.
6
VA = ∑ 50/(1 + 0.05)t + 1,000 /(1+ 0.05)6
t=1

= 50(PVIFA 5%, 6) + 1,000(PVIF 5%, 6)
= 50(5.0757) + 1000 (0.7462)
= 999.99 @ 1000.

The price is expected to be RM 1000 since it has just been sold at par.

Example 2
Consider bon B issued 5 years ago. The coupon bond was 7%. The current discount rate is 10%. The bond has 3 years left to maturity.

VB = 35 (5.0757) + 1000 (0.7462)
= RM 923.85

5.2 YIELD TO MATURITY AND CURRENT YIELD
i) Current Yield
The ratio of the coupon interest to the current market price.
Current Yield = interest received / market price.
Example
A bond with face value of RM 1000 has coupon rate at 10% and the market price is RM 920. Calculate its current yield.

Current Yield = 100/920 = 10.9%

ii) Yield To Maturity
The promised compounded rate of return on a bond purchased at the current market price and held to maturity.

Formula:-
2n
P = ∑ Ct/2 /(1 + YTM/2)t + MV / (1 + YTM/2)2n
t=1

or

V = C/2 (PVIFA YTM/2% , 2n ) + MV(PVIF YTM/2% , 2n)
Where:-

P= the market price of the bond which is known.
N= the number of years to maturity.
YTM = the yield to maturity to be solved for.
C = the coupon in dollars
MV = the face or par value or maturity value.

Example 1:-

A 10% coupon bond has 10 years remaining to maturity. Current market oprice is RM 885.30. Face value of the bond is RM 1000.

Use the formula :-
20
885.30 = ∑ 50 /(1+ r/2)t + 1000/(1 + r/2)20
t=1

Use trial and error process.

i) Try r = 10%

P = 50(PVIFA 5%, 20) + 1000 (PVIF 5%,20)
= 50 (12.462) + 1000 (0.377)
= 623.1 + 377
= 1000.1


ii) Try r = 12%

P = 50 (11.470) + 1000 ( 0.312)
= 573.5 + 312
= 885.50

iii) Try r = 14%

P = 50 (10.594) + 1000 (0.258)
= 529.7 + 258
= 787.7

r between 10% and 14 %

Use interpolation

r = 10% + (1000 – 885.3) / (1000 – 787.7) x 4%

= 10% + (114.7 / 212.3 x 4%)
= 10% + 2.16
= 12.16 %


Formula for a zero coupon bond:-

r/2 = (MV/P) 1/2n – 1

Example 2

A zero coupon bond has 12 years to maturity and is sold for RM 300. Face value is RM 1000. Calculate its yield to maturity.

r/2 = (1000/300) 1/24 – 1

= 24√ 3.3333 – 1
= 1.0514 -1
= 0.0514
r = 0.0514 x 2
= 10.29 %

5.3 Specific Characteristics

i. The call provision
Gives the issuer the right to ‘call in’ the bonds by paying off the obligation.

ii. The sinking fund
Provides for the orderly retirement of the bond issue during its life.

iii. The collateral
Refers to the security behind a bond. Bonds are senior securities. i.e senior to any preferred stock and to the common stock of a corporation in terms of priority of payment and in case of bankruptcy and liquidation.

iv. The conversion feature
Allows a bond or preferred stock to be converted into shares of common stock at the option of the holder.

v. Zero-coupon bond
A bond sold with no coupon at a discount and redeemed for face value at maturity.


5.4 Bond Risks

i. Interest Rate Risk (IRR)
The prices of outstanding bonds must change inversely with changes in current market interest rates. When the market interest rate declines (rises), the prices of bonds outstanding rise (fall).
IRR is the change in the price of a security resulting from a change in interest rates.

ii. Default Risk
The failure to pay the specified interest payments or repay the principal at the time specified in the indenture (contract).

iii. Reinvestment Rate Risk
The uncertainty about the rate at which future cash flows can be reinvested. The expected return does not occur. The actual return does not the same as expected.

iv. Inflation Risk
The risk of the real return being less than the nominal return. The risk of unanticipated inflation. Bonds are fixed income securities. i.e since the payment in dollars is fixed; the value of the payment in real terms declines as the price level rises.

v. Maturity Risk
Indicates that the further into the future an investor goes in purchasing a long-term security, the more risk there is in the investment.

vi. Call Risk
Involve with the callable bonds. The option of the issuer to redeem a bond before maturity date. Bonds will not called unless it is to the issuer’s advantage. e.g when interest rates decline, bonds with higher coupons are likely to be called.

vii. Liquidity (Marketability) Risk
Concerned with the secondary market where a security is traded. A security is liquid if it can be sold easily and quickly.



5.5 Relationship between bond price and interest rates

Bond prices change because interest rates and required yields change.

Bond prices move inversely to interest rates.

Table 1:Bond prices and market yields (10% coupon bond)

Time to maturity Bond prices at different market yields and maturities
6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
1 1038.27 1018.86 1000 981.67 963.84
5 1170.60 1081.11 1000 926.40 859.53
10 1297.55 1135.90 1000 885.30 788.12
15 1392.01 1172.92 1000 862.35 751.82
20 1462.30 1197.93 1000 849.54 733.37
25 1514.60 1214.82 1000 842.38 723.99
30 1553.51 1226.23 1000 838.39 719.22

The table shows ; for any given maturity, the price of bond will decline as the required yield increases.

A decrease in rates will raise bond prices more than an increase in rates will lower bond prices. (As example use data in the table).

From the table; for 15-year 10% coupon bond, the price would be RM 1172.90 if market rate move to decline from 10% to 8 % which resulting in a price appreciation of 17.29%. A rise in market rates from 10% to 12% will result in a change price to RM 862.35 or price decline of 13.77%.

Additional information needed:-

1. The effects of maturity
For a given change in market yields, changes in bond prices ore directly related to time to maturity. As interest rates change, the prices of longer term bonds will change more than the prices of shorter term bonds.
Example:-
There are two 10% coupon bonds and a drop in market yields from 10% to 8%; 15-year bond and 30-year bond.
The price of 15-year bond will be RM 1172.92 while the price of 30-year bond will be RM 1226.23.
Long-term bond prices fluctuate more than do short-term bond prices.

2. The effects of coupon
Bond price fluctuations (volatility) and bond coupon rates are inversely related.

Conclusions:-

A decline (rise) in interest rates will cause a rise (decline) in bond prices, with the most volatility in bond prices occurring in longer maturity bonds and bonds with low coupons.

5.6 Bond Ratings

Definition – Current opinions on the quality of most large corporate and municipal bonds as well as commercial paper. Also can be defined as letters assigned to bonds to indicate their relative probability of default.

Examples of credit-rating agencies are standard & Poor’s (S&P) Corporation, Moody’s Investor Service Incorp., RAM (Rating Agency of Malaysia) etc. Rating firms perform the credit analysis for the investor.

Ratings are made by committees within the rating organization. They are assigned to specific issues of bonds. It reflects the rating companies’ judgements of the issuer’s ability and determination to fulfill its contractual obligation.

The emphasis is on the issuer’s likely prosperity, not on the resources the investor can expect in the event of financial difficulties. It tied closely to the issuer’s financial statements and will change if the issuer’s financial conditions change enough to warrant it.

For S&P corp. consists of letters ranging from AAA, AA, A, BBB and so on to D while Moody’s uses letters from Aaa, Aa, A, Baa etc to D.

Categories AAA through BBB represent investment grade securities. AAA have very strong capacity to meet all obligations. BBB have adequate capacity.

Bond ratings and bond coupon rates are inversely related.

BB, B, CCC and CC represent speculative securities in terms of the issuer’s ability to meet its contractual obligations . These categories carry significant uncertainties.

C reflects that the issuer currently not paying interest. D refers to bonds are in default.

However bond ratings are reflection of the relative probability of default and not the absolute probability of default.


Yield to maturity (YTM) is the yield promised by the bondholder on the assumption that the bond will be held to maturity, that all coupon and principal payments will be made and coupon payments are reinvested at the bond's promised yield at the same rate as invested. It is a measurement of the return of the bond. This technique in theory allows investors to calculate the fair value of different financial instruments.
The calculation of YTM is identical to the calculation of internal rate of return.
• If a bond's current yield is less than its YTM, then the bond is selling at a discount.
• If a bond's current yield is more than its YTM, then the bond is selling at a premium.
• If a bond's current yield is equal to its YTM, then the bond is selling at par.
Given that many bonds have different characteristics, there are some variants of YTM:
• Yield to Call: when a bond is callable (can be repurchased by the issuer before the maturity), the market looks also to the Yield to Call, which is the same calculation of the YTM, but assumes that the bond will be called, so the cashflow is shortened.
• Yield to Put: same as Yield to Call, but when the bond holder has the option to sell the bond back to the issuer at a fixed price on specified date.
• Yield to Worst: when a bond is callable, "puttable" or has other features, the yield to worst is the lowest yield of Yield to Maturity, Yield to Call, Yield to Put, and others.

CHAPTER 4: VALUATION OF EQUITY

Topic 4 – Valuation Of Equity
Introduction

CHARACTERISTICS OF COMMON STOCK
Common shareholders receive returns in the form of dividends. However, a dividend is only paid to common shareholders after interest payments to bond holders and dividend payments to preferred shareholders have been met. The dividend rate paid to common shareholders can fluctuate according to the profits earned by the firm.
Besides the dividend, investors of common stock may enjoy capital gain if the market price of the share is higher than the purchase price. On the other hand, investors would incur capital loss if the market price of the share is lower than the purchase price. However, if the share is not sold, the loss is only considered as a “paper loss”.

Common shareholders are regarded as owners of the company. However, they do not manage the company directly but can be indirectly involved by exercising their voting rights at annual general meetings or AGMs – meetings by companies to provide information and make known the company’s past performance and future plans to shareholders. If there are urgent important issues to be discussed, an emergency general meeting or EGM among the shareholders may be called. If the shareholder cannot attend the meeting personally, he or she can appoint a proxy – that is, a representative to vote on his or her behalf.

TERMS ASSOCIATED WITH COMMON STOCKS
(a) Par Value
The par value is the issue price per share of the common stock.
(b) Prospectus
A prospectus is a brochure that is distributed to would-be investors. It provides information on the company such as the activities of the firm, the board of directors, past year financial statements, summary of material risk factors, utilisation of proceeds, and financial impact from utilisation of proceeds etc.
(c) Board Lots
Shares are traded on the stock exchange in units of board lots. Previously one board lot traded in the Bursa Malaysia is equivalent to 1,000 units of shares but in the year 2003, the Bursa Malaysia implemented the standardisation of board lots at 100 shares per lot. The exercise was carried out in four stages; starting with the Second Board counters in April 2003 and followed by the Main Board counters which concluded in June 2003. With the standardisation of board lots at 100 shares per lot instead of 1,000 shares, it is anticipated that there would be greater stock market participation and activity, thus enhancing liquidity in the stock market.
(d)Dividends
Earnings of a company are distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends and the dividend can be paid in the form of cash or additional stocks allotted to existing shareholders.

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF COMMON STOCKS TO ISSUING FIRMS
Advantages of Common Stock to Issuing Firms
(a) Payment of dividend is not compulsory
Unlike that of bond financing it is not legally binding for a firm to pay dividends to its common shareholders . If interest payments on bonds are not made, the bondholders have the right to sue the company but in the case of common stocks, it is not compulsory for the company to pay dividends. If the performance of the firm is poor in a particular year, it may not pay dividends to its common shareholders. This provides greater flexibility to the issuing firm in terms of financing.

(b) Issuance of common stock provides a favourable option especially if the firm already has a high leverage ratio or gearing ratio.

Disadvantages of Common Stock to Issuing Firms(
a) If a company issues and sells its shares to the public, there is the possibility that the founder of the firm may lose control over the business. Even though common shareholders are not involved directly in the management of the company, they can indirectly influence management through their voting rights.

(b) Besides being subjected to the scrutiny of the investing public, a company that issues shares
to the public also has to abide by several rules and regulations such as the Companies Act 1965, Securities Industry Act 1983, Securities Commission Act 1993, rules of the Bursa Malaysia etc. Compliance with these rules and regulations would result in higher costs to

ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF COMMON STOCKS TO INVESTORSAdvantages of Common Stock to Investors
(a) Common stocks issued by public listed companies are traded on the stock exchange. This provides liquidity to the investment because investors can easily dispose of the stock in the stock market.

(b) Common stockholders face higher risk compared to other investors such as bondholders
or preferred stockholders. However, taking into account the trade-off between risk and return, it can be generalised that common shareholders would be rewarded with higher returns especially over the long-term based on the belief that the market does reward risk-takers.

(c) Investment in common stocks offers variable dividends and returns in the form of capital
gains which may help investors to beat or keep up with inflation which erodes purchasingpower.

Disadvantages of Common Stock to Investors
(a) Common stockholders face higher risk as compared to other investors such as bondholders and preferred stockholders. If a firm is forced to liquidate or becomes bankrupt, bondholders and other creditors have prior claims on the assets of the firm, followed by preferred stockholders. There is the possibility that the common shareholder may lose all of his or her investments in the event of liquidation of the firm.

(b) Separation of ownership and management
Even though common shareholders are the owners of the firm, they are not involved directly in the management of the business. Instead, the company is managed by paid managers and employees, together with the board of directors who oversee the management of the firm. Due to the separation of ownership and management, the activities of the business may not be in the best interest of the minority shareholders



VALUATION
4.1 Balance Sheet Valuation Methods

• Book value
• Replacement value
• Liquidation value

4.1.1 Book Value

It uses the book value of the Net tangible asset Backing (NTA) or Net Asset Value can be defined as :-

NTA = (issued capital + reserves ) / (total number of issued shares)

NTA/share = (shareholders’ funds) / (total number of issued shares)

NTA/share provides an indication of the asset value of the company shares. This value compared with the market price of the company’s share to determine buy/sell decisions.

The weakness of NTA per share :-

• Calculated from the historical accounting data. It may not truly reflect the current value of the company’s assets.
• Does not take into consideration the quality of the company’s assets. It may be over or under stated in the balance sheet.
• Does not reflect any contingent liabilities that may have been incurred.

4.1.2 Replacement value

Using the same method as NTA but the accounts-derived NTA may be adjusted to reflect the replacement value of key assets like land and buildings, machinery etc.

4.1.3 Liquidation Value

Using the same concept as NTA but the accounts-derived NTA be adjusted to reflect the liquidation value of the company’s key assets especially machinery.



4.2 The Dividend Discount Model (DDM)• Dividends are the foundation of valuation for common stocks.
• To value common stock. i.e the cash flows are the dividends expected to be paid in each future period.
• Investors must be carefully study the future prospects for a company and estimate the likely dividends to be paid.
• Estimate an appropriate required rate of return or discount rate based on the risk foreseen in the dividends.
• Discount to the present value of the future dividends to be expected.

Definition – DDM is the estimated price of a stock by discounting all future dividends.

Formula :-

Pcs = D1/(1 + Kcs)1 + D2/(1+ Kcs)2 + D3/(1 + Kcs)3 ….. + D∞ / (1 + Kcs) ∞

∞
= ∑Dt /(1 + K)t
t=1

Where:-
Pcs = the intrinsic value of the stock today.
D1, D2 … D∞ = the dividends expected to be received in each future period.
Kcs = the discount rate applicable for an investment.


Types of DDM:-

1. The Zero-Growth Model (The fixed dollar dividend model).

• Assuming a constant dollar dividend (no growth model).
Formula :-
Po = Do/Kcs
where:-
Do is the constant dollar dividend expected for all future time periods.
Kcs is the opportunity cost or required rate of return for this particular common share.

2. The Constant –Growth Model

Dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate over time.

Formula:-
Po = Do(1 + g)1 /(1 + Kcs)1 + Do(1 + g )2 /(1 + Kcs)2 + Do(1 + g)3/(1 + Kcs)3 + …. Do(1 + g) ∞ / (1 + Kcs) ∞
Where :-
Do = the current dividend being paid.
g = constant growing rate.
Kcs = discount rate.

Simplified equation :-

Po = D1 / (K – g)

Where :-
D1 = the dividend expected to be received at the end of year 1.

3. The Multiple-Growth Model

Where the expected future growth in dividends must be described using two or more growth rates.

Formula:-
t=n
Po = ∑ Do(1 + g1)t / (1 + K)t + [Dn(1 + gc)/(K – g) x 1/(1 + K)n ]
t=1
Where:-
Po = the intrinsic value of the stock today.
Do = the current dividend.
g1 = the supernormal growth rate for dividends.
gc = the constant- growth rate for dividends.
K = the required rate of return.
n = the number of periods of supernormal growth.
Dn= the dividend at the end of the abnormal growth period.

Pn = D(n + 1) / (K – gc)

Pn = the expected price of the stock derived from the constant-growth model.
Example :-

Do = RM 1.00
g1 = 12% (for 5 years0
gc = 6% (forever)
K = 10%

Po (for the 1st five years)


Year Dividend received PVIF 10%, t Present value
1 1.00(1.12) = 1.12 0.909 1.02
2. 1.12(1.12) = 1.25 0.826 1.03
3. (1.12)3 = 1.40 0.751 1.05
4. (1.12)4 = 1.57 0.683 1.07
5. (1.12)5 = 1.76 0.621 1.09

Po(D1 – D5) 5.26

Pn = D6 /(K – gc)

= D5(1.06) / (0.10 – 0.06)
= 1.76 (1.06) /(0.10 – 0.06)
= RM 46.64

Po(D6 - D∞) = 46.64(0.621)
= 28.96

Po(D1 - D∞) = 5.26 + 28.96
= RM 34.22

4.3 P/E Ratio Model (Earnings Multiplier)

• More common used by security analysts.
• Easier to use.
• Very simplicity.
• Can lead to forget the need of estimation of the uncertain future. (Every valuation model requires estimates of the uncertain future).
• Consistent with the present value analysis. i.e intrinsic value.
•
Definition - P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the current market price of the stock by the latest 12-month earnings (EPS).

Po = estimated earnings x justified P/E ratio.

Po = E1 x P/E ratio

Example

E1 = Rm 3.00
P/E ratio = 15

Po = RM 45.00


Determinants of P/E ratio :-
P/E ratio can be derived from DDM (based on constant growth model).

PE = D1 /(k-g)

Devide by E1 (both sides)

PE / E1 = (D1/E1) /(k – g)

Factors that affect P/E ratio:-

• The dividend payout ratio (D/E)
• The required rate of return (k)
• The expected growth rate of dividends (g)

The relationship between the P/E ratio and the related factors :-

• When the payout ratio rise; the P/E ratio rise. i.e direct relationship.
• When the value of g rise ; the P/E ratio rise . i.e direct relationship.
• When the value of k rise; the P/E ratio declines. i.e inverse relationship.

Example

Assume that the payout ratio is 60% . Calculate the P/E ratio and the price of the share if the expected earning for next year is RM 3 . The following data are related.
i. k = 0.15 ; g = 0.07
ii. k= 0.16 ; g = 0.06
iii. k=0.14 ; g = 0.08

i. P/E = (D/E) / (k – g)
= 0.60 / (0.15 – 0.07 )
= 7.5 x

Po = 7.5 x 3 = RM 22.50

ii. P/E = 0.60/ (0.16 – 0.06)
= 6x

Po = 6 x 3
= RM 18.00

iv. P/E = 0.60 / (0.14 – 0.08)
= 10 x
Po = 10 x 3
= RM 30.00
4.4 Problems arise in the valuation of equity :-

The Problems Occurred With DDM :_

1. The equation indicates the investors are dealing with infinity. Investors must value a stream of dividends may be paid forever since common share has no maturity date.
2. The dividend stream is uncertain. There is no specified number of dividends. Dividends must be declared periodically by the firm’s board of directors . Dividends for most firms are expected to grow over time.

How To solve These Problems:-

1. The infinite number of periods and dividends can be solved by using a reasonable high discount rates such as 12 %, 145 etc. Today’s value for dividends to be received in 50/60 years in the future are worth very little. E.g The present value of RM 1 to be received 50 years from now; if discount rate is 15% is RM 0.0009.
2. Due to uncertainty. The solution is to make some assumptions about the expected growth rate of dividends over time.

4.5 Key factors in the valuation of equity
i. Dividends
It is as the foundation of valuation of common stocks because dividends are the only cash payment a stockholder receives directly from a firm.

ii. The required rate of return
Investors must estimate an appropriate required rate of return.

iii. Intrinsic value

It is obtained through the present value analysis (DDM). It is specify the relationship between intrinsic value (IV) and the current market price (CMP).

If IV > CMP – the asset is under-valued and should be purchased or held if already hold.

If IV < CMP – the asset is over-valued and should be avoided or sold if held or sold short.

If IV = CMP – implies an equilibrium that asset is correctly valued.

IV may differ among investors due to different estimations of future benefits and discount or required rate of return.
Therefore a particular asset on a particular day, some investors are willing to buy and some are willing to sell.
4.6 Other Factors That Affect The Share Price.

i. Interest Rates
It has inverse relationship with the share price. When the interest rates increase ; the share prices decrease.

ii. Changes In Money Supply
The relationship between changes in money supply and the share price is direct.

iii. Composite Indexes
Generally the composite indexes are moving in line with stock prices (direct relationship).

CHAPTER 3 : INVESTMENT ANALYSIS

Tajuk 3 – Analisis Pelaburan

Analisis Fundamental

Definisi – Kajian mengenai nilai saham menggunakan data-data asas seperti perolehan, jualan dan lain-lain.

Asas ini menyatakan mana-mana sekuriti mempunyai nilai intrinsik . Dalam keseimbangan harga pasaran saham menggambarkan nilai intrinsic saham. Seorang pelabur yang mempunyai pengetahuan fundamental yang baik boleh membuat keuntungan dari perbezaan harga pasaran dengan nilai intrinsic dengan bertindak cepat sebelum harga pasaran diselaraskan dengan maklumat yang betul. Ahli Fundamental percaya bahawa data mereka dinilai dengan betul yang didapati dari penyata kewangan syarikat.

Analisis Fundamental melibatkan 3 aspek:-

i. Analisis Ekonomi
ii. Analisis Industri
iii. Analisis Syarikat.

Analisis Ekonomi

Analisis ini mengkaji ekonomi secara umum dengan memberi penekanan kepada pembolehubah yang mempengaruhi ekonomi sesebuah negara dalam tempoh tertentu . Sebagai contoh Keluaran Negara Kasar yang mengukur kadar pertuimbuhan ekonomi akan diambil kira dalam menentukan kedudukan dan prospek ekonomi Negara tersebut.

Dasar kewangan dan dasar fiscal kerajaan perlu diteliti kerana ia memberi kesan kepada bursa saham. Contohnya dasar kewangan yang ketat akan menyekat aliran pasaran modal dan menyebabkan kadar faedah naik. Sebaliknya dasar kewangan yang longgar akan membebaskan aliran pasaran modal dan menyebabkan kadar faedah turun.

Dasar fiskal adalah berkaitan dengan system percukaian kerajaan yang merupakan sumber hasil terbesar. Melalui dasar ini , kerajaan boleh merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan memberikan kredit pelaburan dan mengurangkan kadar cukai. Kerajaan juga boleh melembapkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan membekukan kredit pelaburan dan menaikkan kadar cukai.

Pembolehubah tersebut boleh mempengaruhi agregat ekonomi dan seterusnya membawa kesan yang ketara terhadap indusri dan syarikat. Dengan itu sebarang perkembangan yang dijangka akan berlaku boleh menjejaskan pergerakan harga saham di bursa saham.

Analisis Industri

Analisis industri dibuat selepas kajian ekonomi dilakukan. Analisis ini dikenali sebagai analisis sector kerana ia mengkaji sector-sektor ekonomi dalam tempoh tertentu. Dalam analisis industri memerlukan penganalis mengetahui pusingan hidup industri. Penganalisis perlu mengenalpasti tempoh mana syarikat berada.


Pusingan Hidup Industri

Terdapat 4 pringkat dalam pusingan hidup industri.

i. Peringkat Perintis (inovasi)

Pada peringkat ini berlaku pertumbuhan permintaan yang pesat terutamanya di kalangan masyarakat bersifat inovatif.Dengan itu tahap jualan terus meningkat dengan kadar pertumbuhan yang tinggi. Pada masa ini juga wujudnya peluang-peluang yang menarik syarikat luar untuk bersaing. Syarikat yang lemah akan terkeluar di peringkat awal lagi. Walau bagaimanapun penganalisis masih mengalami masalah untuk mengenalpasti syarikat yang mampu terus hidup dalam industri.



ii. Peringkat Perkembangan

Semua syarikat dalam industri yang telah mencapai peringkat ini menunjukkan kemampuannya untuk terus hidup. Pada peringkat ini tahap jualan adalah tinggi dengan kadar pertumbuhan yang sederhana.Pada masa ini industri memperbaiki mutu keluaran dan cuba menurunkan harga. Keadaan pasaran lebih stabil dan kukuh seta dapat menarik lebih ramai pelabur ke dalam industri.

iii. Peringkat Kestabilan/Kematangan

Peringkat ini menunjukkan tahap jualan yang masih tinggi tetapi kadar pertumbuhan yang lebih rendah. Semua keluaran lebih standard dan kurang inovatif di kalangan pengeluar. Pada masa ini juga terdapat banyak pesaing di pasaran dan menyebabkan kos adalah stabil atau hampir sama.

iv. Peringkat Kejatuhan

Pada peringkat ini kebanyakan syarikat mengalami kejatuhan tahap jualan yang menyebabkan perolehan syarikat juga jatuh dan boleh menyebabkan kerugian. Kebanyakan syarikat keluar dari pasaran. Bagaimanapun syarikat yang masih berada di pasaran adalah syarikat yang mempunyai pelanggan setia.


Implikasi peringkat industri kepada pelabur

i. Peringkat Perintis

Pada peringkat ini menawarkan potensi pulangan pelaburan yang tinggi tetapi risikonya juga tinggi. Keadaan ini disebabkan oleh kemungkinan syarikat gagal meneruskan kehidupannya adalah tinggi. Pelabur seharusnya mengelakkan dari melabur dalamsyarikat pada peringkat ini melainkan pelabur yang sanggup menanggung risiko yang tinggi.

ii. Peringkat Perkembangan
Pada peringkat ini syarikat mampu membayar dividen yang tinggi dengan kadar pertumbuhan yang sederhana. Peringkat ini merupakan masa terbaik untuk melabur kerana potensi syarikat untuk terus hidup telah dibuktikan dan risiko pelaburan telah dikurangkan.

iii. Peringkat Kematangan
Pada masa syarikat masih dapat mengekalkan keuntungan dan mampu membayar dividen yang tinggi tetapi kadar pertumbuhan yang lebih rendah. Peringkat ini juga menawarkan peluang pelaburan yang baik keran pelabur masih dijamin mendapat pulangan yang positif.

iv. Peringkat kejatuhan

Pada peringkat ini pelabur harus mengelakkan dari melabur kerana kemungkinan besar pelabur mengalami kerugian. Pelabur perlu mengenalpasti syarikat-syarikat yang berada pada peringkat ini.

Analisis Industri dari aspek analisis pusingan perniagaan.

i. Growth industries (Industri Pertumbuhan)

Industri yang mempunyai pertumbuhan perolehan dijangka yang melebihi purata semua industri secara ketara.

ii. Defensive industries (Industri Bertahan )

Industri yang kurang terjejas akibat kemelesetan atau kegawatan ekonomi atau lain-lain faktor yang menjejaskan ekonomi.

iii. Cyclical industry (industri berkitar)

Industri yang paling terjejas akibat turun naik pusingan perniagaan. Sudah menjadi kelaziman prestasi perniagaan dalam industri mengikut keadaan pusingan atau kitaran ekonomi secaraa keseluruhan. Bila ekonomi berkembang kebanyakan perniagaan menunjukkan prestasi yang baik. Begitu juga sebaliknya apabila ekonomi meleset kebanyak perniagaan juga menghadapi kemerosotan dalam prestasinya.

iv. Interest –sensitive industries (Industri yang sensitive terhadap kadar faedah).

Industri yang sensitive terhadap perubahan yang dijangka ke atas kadar faedah. Prestasi industri bergantung kepad perubahan kadar faedah di pasaran kerana perolehan syarikat amat berkait rapat dengan perubahan kadar faedah. Contohnya syarikat kewangan, perbankan dan syarikat-syarikat pelaburan.
v. Qualitative aspects of industry analysis.
Dari aspek kualitatif penilaian dibuat ke atas prestasi sejarah syarikat yang lepas. Perbandingan boleh dibuat ke atas perolehan yang lepas untuk tempoh beberapa tahun yang boleh memberikan tentang gambaran keupayaan syarikat mengendalikan perniagaan.

Kajian boleh juga dibuat ke atas kemampuan syarikat untuk bersaing di pasaran. Analisis perlu dibuat dari segi mencari kekuatan syarikat berbanding dengan pesaing yang lain seterusnya menentukan keduudukan syarikat di pasaran.

Pelaksanaan peraturan dan tindakan kerajaan perlu diambilkira bagi melihat kesannya dengan industri terlibat. Dalam banyak keadaan perubahan dalam dasar dan peraturan kerajaan boleh menjejaskan prestasi perolehan syarikat.

Satu lagi faktor ialah perubahan dalam struktur ekonomi Negara. Apabila kerajaan membuat perubahan dasar dalam perubahan struktur ekonomi misalnya dari ekonomi berasaskan pertanian kepada ekonomi berasaskan perindustrian telah banyak memberikan impak samada positi atau negative kepada banyak industri.

vi. Penilaian ke atas prospek masa hadapan industri.

Prospek masa hadapan adalah penting untuk dijangka oleh pelabur. Ini disebabkan perolehan pelabur bergantung kepada prestasi syarikat dimasa hadapan. Keputusan pelabur pada hari ini dibuat berasaskan kepada jangkaan perolehan di masa hadapan. Dengan itu amat penting pelanur membuat unjuran atau jangkaan ke atas prospek masa hadapan syarikat atau industri.


Analisis Syarikat

Setelah mengkaji kedudukan ekonomi dan industri analisis perlu dibuat ke atas syarikat yang dipilih yang dijangka akan menunjukkan prestasi yang terbaik. Analisis syarikat dibuat dengan terperinci dari aspek dalaman dan luaran. Aspek dalaman perlu mengkaji struktur organisasi sebuah syarikat khususnya lembaga pengarah, bidang utama perniagaan, anak-anak syarikat, syarikat-syarikat sekutu serta rekod perniagaan.

Rekod perniagaan hendaklah dilihat dengan membuat perbandingan dari tahun ke tahun atau antara syarikat dengan syarikat yang lain.Analisis secara kuantitatif dibuat menggunakan analisis nisbah.

Objektif akhir dalam analisis syrikat ialah mencari nilai intrinsic saham syarikat. Nilai intrinsic ini akan dibandingkan dengan nilai pasaran saham sebagai asas membuat keputusan pelaburan.

Dalam menentukan nilai intrinsic maklumat diperolehi dari penyata kewangan syarikat yang membekalkan data kewangan utama syarikat. Kunci Kira-kira pula menunjukkan kedudukan asset dan liability syarikat. Penyata pendapatan pula dapat menilai prestasi pengurusan dan menganggar keberuntungan syarikat pada masa hadapan. Maklumat seperti EPS amat berguna dan merupakan komponen utama dalam analisis sekuriti.

Bagaimanapun terdapat permasalahan dalam angka perolehan yang dilaporkan. Ini disebabkan angka EPS yang ditunjukkan bukansatu angka yang sedia untuk dibandingkan antara syarikat. Dalam penyediaan penyata kewangan terdapat pilihan dari segi amalan prinsip perakaunan yang diterima umum. Setiap kaedah yang digunakan akan memberikan perolehan yang berbeza dan akhirnya memberikan nilai EPS yang berbeza.



Terdapat 2 perkara penting yang mesti dipertimbangkan dalam proses analisis fundamental.

i. EPS ialah kunci kepada perubahan harga masa hadapan saham. Saham-saham yang mempunyai perubahan perolehan yang besar berkemungkinan besar mengalami perubahan harga yang besar samada positif atau negative.
ii. Kadar pertumbuhan perolehan tidak mudah untuk diramal. Pelabur tidak boleh menggunakan pertumbuhan EPS yang lepas untuk meramal pertumbuhan di masa hadapan.

Analisis Teknikal

Definisi

Analisis Teknikal merupakan analisis pasaran agregat dan saham individu dengan menggunakan data asas pasaran yang telah diterbitkan di pasaran seperti harga-harga saham , indeks pasaran, bilangan/volum saham yang diurusniagakan, petunjuk-petunjuk pasaran/teknikal dan sebagainya.

Objektif Analisis Teknikal untuk melihat pergerakan harga berasaskan masa bagi meramal pergerakan harga jangkapendek. Ramalan ini berasaskan kajian pasaran ke atas saham melalui analisis data harga dan volumsaham. Ahli-ahli teknikal lebih menekankan perubahan harga berbanding paras harga. Mereka beranggapan asdalah sukar untuk menganggar nilai intrinsic sesuatu saham dan tidak mungkin untuk mendapat analisis maklumat secara konsisten.

Teori dan Andaian

i. Harga pasaran saham hanya ditentukan oleh interaksi antara kuasa permintaan dan penawaran.
ii. Kuasa penawaran dan permintaan dipengaruhi oleh pelbagai faktor sentiment pasaran samada rasional atau tidak.
iii. Harga-harga saham berkecenderungan untuk bergerak dalam suatu arah yang boleh ditentukan.
iv. Haluan perubahan disebabkan oleh peralihan interaksi antara kuasa penawaran dan permintaan akhirnya boleh dikesan dalam reaksi pasaran itu sendiri.

Teori Dow

Teori Dow telah dicipta oleh Charles H. Dow pada tahun 1921. Ia merumuskan bahawa harga saham di pasaran secara keseluruhan tidak bergerak secara rambang tetapi dipengaruhi oleh tiga kitaran dan pergerakan harga iaitu:-

i. Pergerakan Primer

Pergerakan harga berkitar selama beberapa tahun iaitu seawall-awalnya setahun dan selewat-lewatnya tiga tahun. Ia melibatkan tempoh jangka masa yang panjang . Biasanya perkembangan arah meningkat adalah lebih lama dari perkembangan arah menurun. Pergerakan ke atas menunjukkan pasaran ‘bull’ dan pergerakan arah ke bawah menunjukkan pasaran ‘bear’

ii. Pergerakan sekunder

Pergerakan sekunder berkitar selama beberapa bulan iaitu seawall-awalnya enam minggu dan selewat-lewatnya enam bulan. Ia bertindak sebagai kuasa yang memperbaiki sisihan yang berlaku dalam kitaran primer. Ia muncul kerana berlaku pembetulan dalam kitaran primer ekoran dari kejatuhan harga semasa pasaran menjulang atau kenaikan harga semasa pasaran menjunam.

iii. Pergerakan Kecil/Harian

Pergerakan harian adalah berlaku secara random atau rawak. Ia berkitar selama beberapa jam hingga beberapa hari sahaja. Kesan kitaran tidak begitu dirasai oleh pelabur kerana jangkamasa yang cukup singkat dan tiada kepenmtingan kepada ahli-ahli teknikal dalam membuat ramalan.

Penunjuk Pasaran

i. The Advance Decline Line (Garis Turun Naik)

Garis Turun Naik ialah merupakan perbezaan bersih antara bilangan saham-saham yang mengalami kenaikan harga dengan bilangan saham-saham yang mengalami penurunan harga iaitu dengan menolakkan bilangan saham yang naik dengan bilangan saham yang turun harga. Pengiraan ini dibuat menggunakan data secara kumulatif atau terkumpul. Hasil yang diperolehi akan diplot bagi membentuk garisan secara harian atau mingguan. Garisan ini dibandingkan dengan garisan purata saham untuk menunjukkan samada pergerakan penunjuk pasaran ini juga dialami oleh pasaran.

Biasanya kedua-dua garisan bergerak dalam arah yang sama. Jika kedua-duanya menaik menunjukkan pasaran adalah kuat manakala jika sebaliknya menunjukkan pasaran adalah lemah.

Jika garis turun naik menaik manakala garisan purata menurun maka garisan purata akan naik dengan sendirinya mengikut arah garis turun naik. Jika garisan purata menaik manakala garis turun naik menurun maka garisan purata akan menurun dan diikuti dengan pasaran akan menurun .

ii. Purata Bergerak (Moving Average)

Purata Bergerak dikira secara penentuan bilangan harga penutup seperti purata untuk 200 hari, 30 minggu dan sebagainya. Pengiraan yang baru dibuat dengan menambah 1 hari dan menggugurkan 1 hari yang pertama hingga seterusnya. Pengiraan ini dibuat berulang-ulang dan angka-angka diplot bagi membentuk garisan purata bergerak. Purata bergerak dibandingkan dengan harga pasaran untuk membuat keputusan samada beli atau jual.

iii. Harga Tinggi rendah Yang Baru (New Highs And Lows)

Penunjuk pasaran ini dapat menunjukkan gambaran samada pasaran bullish atau bearish . Pasaran dianggap bullish jika terdapat bilangan saham yang menunjukkan harga tertinggi yang baru secara signifikan selama 52 minggu. Sebaliknya pasaran adalah lemah sekiranya hanya terdapat beberapa saham sahaja yang menunjukkan harga tertinggi yang baru.

iv. Volum Urusniaga

Penunjuk pasaran ini juga dapat menunjukkan gambaran pasaran bullish atau bearish. Volum urusniaga yang tinggi secara keseluruhannya menunjukkan pasaran adalah bullish. Kedaan ini bertambah kuat jika diikuti dengan peningkatan harga.

v. Kecairan Dana Amanah Mutual

Formula yang digunakan ialah (tunai + asset hampir tunai) / (Jumlah asset)

Kedaan pasaran mempunyai perhubungan secara langsung dengan nisbah kecairan ini. Semakin tinggi nisbah kecairan maka pasaran adalah bullish. Nisbah kecairan yang tinggi menunjukkan potensi kuasa beli yang tinggi dan kesannya harga saham akan naik. Sebaliknya jika nisbah kecairan adalah rendah potensi kuasa bel;I juga rendah dan kesannya pasaran kan jatuh.

vi. Nisbah Kedudukan Pandak (Short Interest Ratio)

Formula yang digunakan ialah (Jumlah saham yang dijual singkat)/(Purata jualan harian)

Mengikut pendapat ahli teknikal jika nisbah kedudukan pandak adalah tinggi menunjukkan pasaran adalah bullish. Ini disebabkan bilangan saham yang dijual singkat adalah tinggi dan kesannya belian semula saham adalah tinggi. Keadaan ini menunjukkan permintaan ke atas saham adalah tinggi dan menyebabkan harga saham akan naik dan pasaran menjadi bullish.

bagaimanapun pendapat ini bertentangan dengan pendapat pelabur iaitu jualan singkat berlaku kerana pelabur meramal harga saham akan jatuh.

vii. Pendapat Berlawanan (Contrary Opinion)

Pendapat berlawanan merupakan tindakan pelabur yang bertentangan arah tindakan kebanyakan pelabur-pelabur. Misalnya jika terdapat ramai pelabur yang membeli saham A, seorang pelabur seharunya bertindak untuk menjual saham tersebut. Sebaliknya jika terdapat ramai pelabur menjual saham A, seorang pelabur seharusnya bertindak untuk membeli saham tersebut.

Carta

i. Carta Bar

Carta bar disediakan dengan memplot harga saham harian berbanding masa. Setiap hari pergerakan harga saham dilukis secara menegak di mana bahagian atas menunjukkan harga tertinggi,; bahagian bawah menunjukkan harga terendah manakala satu garis mendatar yang ditandakan menunjukkan harga penutup. Bahagian bawah carta bar menunjukkan volum jualan setiap hari. Ahli Teknikal menggunakan carta bar untuk melihat pola carta dan digunakan bagi mengunjurkan pergerakan harga dimasa hadapan.

ii. Carta poin dan Figur

Carta ini disediakan dengan memplot harga-harga saham yang mengalami perubahan harga yang signifikan. Volum urusniaga tidak ditunjukkan dalam carta. Garis mendatar menunjukkan masa tetapi masa mengikut calendar tidak penting. Simbol ‘X’ dan ‘O’ digunakan di atas carta. Tanda ‘X’ menunjukkan pergerakan harga ke atas. Tanda ‘O’ menunjukkan pergerakan harga ke bawah. Setiap tanda ‘X’ atau ‘O’ mewakili nilai RM 1, RM 2 , RM 5 dan sebagainya bergantung kepada nilai perubahan harga saham berkenaan. Tanda ‘X’ dan ‘O’ hanya direkod bila pergerakan harga pada jumlah tertentu.

iii. Kekuatan Relatif

Kekuatan relative merupakan nisbah harga saham dengan indeks pasaran atau industri atau nisbah harga saham dibandingkan dengan purata harga saham berkenaan. Nisbah ini diplot berbanding dengan masa. Garisan ini menunjukkan kekuatan saham berbanding dengan asas yang dipilih seperti industri, pasaran dan sebagainya.

Hipotesis Pasaran Cekap

3.8.1 Definisi

Hipotesis Pasaran Cekap ialah pasaran dimana harga-harga sekuriti digambarkan sepenuhnya oleh semua maklumat yang diketahui dengan cepat dan tepat.Ia merupakan kunci kepada penentuan harga-harga saham di pasaran.

3.8.2 Keadaan –Keadaan Yang Mewujudkan Pasaran Cekap

i. Terdapat ramai pelabur yang rasional serta bertujuan memaksimumkan untung danbertindak secara aktif dalam pasaran. Ini bererti tindakan seorang pelabur dalam padsaran tidak boleh mempengaruhi harga saham di pasaran.

ii. Maklumat boleh diperolehi secara percuma, didapati secara meluas dan serentak. Ini bermakna tidak ada kos bagi mendapatkan maklumat . Begitu juga maklumat diperolehi dengan mudah tanpa ada sebarang sekatan atau syarat yang menyukarkan seseorang mendapatkan maklumat. Maklumat seharusnya diterima oleh semua pelabur tanpa ada perbezaan masa iaitu maklumat diperolehi pada mwsa yang sama oleh semua pelabur.

iii. Maklumat dijanakan secara rawak dimana pengumuman dibuat secara bebas. Ini bermakna semua pengumuman yang dibuat oleh syarikat hendaklah dilakukan apabila ia perlu tanpa ada kaitan dengan pengumuman oleh syarikat-syarikat lain. Contohnya sekiranya pada masa tertentu syarikat menunjukkan prestasi yang baik atau meningkat maka pengumuman mengenai peningkatan prestasi tersebut hendaklah dibuat .
iv. Pelabur betindak dengan cepat dan sepenuhnya terhadap maklumat baru yang masuk di pasaran dan menyebabkan harga saham diselaraskan dengan cepat selari dengan maklumat baru.

Jenis-Jenis Maklumat

Maklumat adalah kunci dalam penentuan harga saham. Fama (1970) membahagikan maklumat kepada 3 jenis iaitu :-

i. Maklumat Masa Lepas

Ini adalah maklumat yang relevan kepada penilaian saham dengan menganalisis data harga pasaran lepas.

ii. Maklumat Awam

Ini adalah maklumat mengenai sesuatu syarikat, industri dan ekonomi dubia yang boleh diperolehi melalui pengumuman awam.

iii. Maklumat Dalaman

Ini adalah maklumat yang hamya dimiliki oleh segelintir individu yang mempunyai kedudukan dalam sesebuah syarikat.

Bentuk-Bentuk Pasaran Cekap

i. Bentuk Lemah

Ia menyatakan harga-harga saham pada masa kini telah mencerminkan semua maklumat harga saham yang lepas.

ii. Bentuk Separa Kuat

Ia menyatakan bahawa harga-harga saham menggambarkan semua maklumat yang telah wujud atau diketahui umum . Maklumat ini termasuk harga-harga saham, laporan-laporan perakaunan , data ekonomi, pengumuman perolehan syarikat dan lain-lain maklumat yang relevan kepada pelabur dalam penilaian sebuah syarikat.

iii. Bentuk Kuat

Ia menyatakan bahawa harga-harga saham menggambarkan semua maklumat samada yang telah diumumkan atau masih belum diumumkan. Ini bermakna maklumat yang masih belum diumumkan juga boleh diserap oleh pasaran seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh harga pasaran saham.